In the last six weeks I have done a below average job on writing non-political posts. I got some ones in there that might not have found their way to the blog if there were primaries throughout that time, but I gave up on completely abandoning any talk about the candidates and the race for the White House after I took a spin through the archives. According to the archives, this blog covered politics long before I remember ever writing about politics. And so, after a pseudo-break from political blogging I return today with some very casual thoughts on the next primary because tomorrow, voting is back on the menu.
Clinton is set to win Pennsylvania. All the major polls out there show her lead to be anywhere from 6 to 14 percentage points. Andrew Sullivan is of the opinion that without a double-digit Clinton victory in Pennsylvania, Clinton doesn’t have a legitimate reason to stay in the race. I definitely subscribe to this, but do I think Clinton will go on even if she just wins by two points? Of course. I think most of us do.
Since the ABC debate and bittergate, the networks have really been hitting Obama hard for hitting back at Hillary. I don’t know what the media expects of Obama. Yes, he is classy, but classy people need to defend themselves and I think that is all he has done since being triple teamed by Gibson, Stephanopoulos, and Clinton last week.
The best case scenario for Obama is a narrow defeat tomorrow and victory in the remaining primaries followed by a Clinton concession speech. The latter determining factor being the most unlikely, but if this did happen it would be a boon to the Democrats chances in November because they wouldn’t have to wait until August to solidify a nomination.
The worst case scenario for Obama and everyone that doesn’t want McCain in the White House will be if Clinton stays in the race until the convention like she vowed to do several weeks ago in the Washington Post. If she takes this to the convention I will be very skeptical about an Obama victory in November. Remember the good old days when Clinton voters said they would support Obama if he won the nomination and vice versa? Well, that dream has died. Each day that this battle rages on polarizes the democrats even more. I used to think a Giuliani/Clinton match-up was the worst possible. That was before Clinton decided to stay in the race even though it is mathematically impossible for her to win with numbers of delegates, states won, and popular vote.
Honestly, I think Obama will definitely win the nomination, but that hasn’t kept me from having nightmares about voting for Clinton or McCain. I think I would pass altogether.
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