Polls and Reality

While in Starbucks this morning I saw an old co-worker who is virulently pro-McCain and we have gotten into it on more than one occasion, but this morning we were just making predictions about who will win in just over three weeks.

He said, "Do you think he [Obama] will win?"

"I think he can."

"But do you think he will? That's different," he said.

I was hesitant to say he will because I don't want to get into that mindset and feel like an Obama landslide is imminent. First, because I don't think that's going to happen. Second, because I am going to be seriously pissed off and depressed if McCain wins and if he wins when I am confidently feeling an Obama landslide, my mood will be that much worse.

The co-worker noted my hesitation and he sat down to explain why he thinks McCain can still pull it off. His explanation was hard to follow, but he said it is the "lazy people" that are going to influence the outcome of this election. I think he was addressing the "lazy people" that the Obama camp is expecting to go out and vote. I think he feels these people won't do that. I assume he was addressing the concern about young voters actually following through with their stated intention for voting for Obama. But he also believes "lazy people" haven't been polled yet, stating that these people aren't taking part in the polls because they are lazy, but not too lazy not to vote. So as he described them, these people are going to be sitting around an hour before polls close and say to themselves, "Holy crap, I don't want that guy to be president" and they are going to rush out and vote for the other guy. He was suggesting that they would vote for McCain, that Obama has cast a spell over 50% of the nation that he is a worthy candidate for the presidency.

That is what I took from the conversation at least. I didn't mention that he kept on calling the race very close, which, defined by all national polls, it isn't, but I didn't bother correcting him on that.

I think the final outcome on November 4th will be very close, closer than the polls right now. There is a lot of talk about a Bradley effect, even Sunday Morning addressed that anomally, but I don't see it happening (and neither did Sunday Morning, saying the country has come such a long way since the origin of the Bradley effect in 1982), at least not a ten-point swing from polls to reality.

Let's hope not.